Going into Tuesday night, if you were a swing-state progressive, it was pretty easy to be discouraged about the state of the presidential race.
But the extraordinary happened: Democrats romped in the Philadelphia suburbs and upended the political map in Virginia by capturing both chambers of the state Legislature for the first time in a generation. The icing on the cake came in deep red Kentucky, where incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin was sent packing just 24 hours after President Trump rallied for him.
Taken together, the Democratic wins suggest that Trump is still vulnerable in key battleground states and might actually be vulnerable in placed like Kentucky, which he carried by large margins in 2016.
They also say the road to the White House runs through the suburbs.
Tuesday’s results highlight structural weaknesses for Trump as the House’s impeachment inquiry moves into its public phase, and the president shifts into perhaps the most difficult period of an already stormy tenure.
In Kentucky, it’s reasonable to think the result was specific to Bevin, who was controversial and deeply unpopular among his home state voters.
But, as the Washington Post reports, Bevin’s “attempt to nationalize his cause by stoking conservative grievances about the impeachment process was not enough to overcome his problems nor was Trump’s raucous rally for the governor on Monday - raising questions about Trump’s political strength as he faces a barrage of challenges and a difficult path to reelection.”
Trump won Kentucky by nearly 30 percentage points in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton 65.2 percent to 32.7 percent. Next year, someone nearly as unpopular as Trump – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – will also will be on the ballot. And McConnell faces a credible challenge in the form of Amy McGrath, the favorite to emerge as the Democratic nominee.
She raised $10.7 million in the first three months of her campaign, CNN reported. A year from now, after a brutal campaign, and endless headlines about impeachment, Bluegrass State Democrats could be sufficiently motivated to kick out McConnell and send a very strong message to Trump.
Then there’s Virginia, where Democrats have steadily eroded Republican gains, and have the opportunity to rewrite the state’s political narrative through both redistricting and by passing anti-gun violence measures that Republicans stymied earlier this year.
Virginia is really two states. There are the progressive suburbs around Washington D.C., which are home to tens of thousands of federal employees. And then there’s rural western Virginia, which made possible the ugly scenes around Charlottesville in 2017.
Nonetheless, Clinton carried Virginia in 2016, beating Trump 49.8 percent to 44.4 percent. The Democratic surge on Tuesday strongly suggests that Democrats can build on and expand those margins in 2020.
But the results in Pennsylvania send the strongest message.
On Tuesday night, Democrats captured all four county courthouses. One of them, in traditionally Republican Delaware County, went blue for the first time since the Civil War. The victories finished a job that began in 2018 where, thanks to the miracle of a court-ordered redistricting, the Dems captured three out of four Congressional seats in the four, suburban counties, and evened their Capitol Hill margin with Republicans to nine seats apiece.
Former Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Ryan Costello, who decided to retire instead of running in a redrawn seat that favored Democrats, warned his fellow Republicans Tuesday of an “electoral realignment” in the suburbs that should put them on notice. His suburban district is now held by a Democrat.
“Republicans aren’t leaning in on the issues that affect suburban, affluent voters like gun safety and the environment,” Costello told the Washington Post. “Plus, Trump is not a benefit but a burden. That forces Republicans to have to ask voters to really hear them out on issues like taxes and school safety even if those voters don’t like Trump and that’s not easy.”
Yes, disdain for Trump in the ‘burbs is already well-established. But other stuff needs to happen to erase Trump’s 44,000-vote edge in Pennsylvania in 2016.
That means the traditional progressive wave out of Philadelphia. But it also means strong Democratic turnout in some highly competitive congressional districts such as central Pennsylvania’s decidedly purple (and largely suburban) 10th District, now held by Republican Rep. Scott Perry. Ditto for the very suburban 17th District held by Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.
If Democrats also manage to recapture Obama voters who went for Trump in the northeast and southwest, along with independents, then they’ll seal all 20 of the state’s electoral votes. And that leaves Trump, who faces challenges in other Rust Belt issues, with a shrinking list of options.